Snow forecast for 2026-27: El Niño, oh no no? Or no?

El Niño is the warm phase of a cyclical pattern of sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the tropical Pacific that occurs every two to seven years. There is also a cool phase, known as La Niña, as well as a neutral phase. Together, they are known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

The development of any given phase is related to the strength of tropical easterly winds known as the trade winds. When the trade winds are near normal strength, neutral conditions dominate. 

During La Niña, the trades become stronger than normal, causing warmer-than-normal water to pile up in the western Pacific while allowing cooler-than-normal water to rise to the surface in the eastern Pacific.

But when those trades weaken or reverse, unusually warm water can build up in the eastern Pacific, bringing about El Niño.

This is important because when the water warms to a certain point, thunderstorms can follow. These shifting patterns of thunderstorms drive the larger ENSO system, pumping huge amounts of heat into the upper atmosphere and altering global jet stream patterns. 

This is how ENSO can influence the weather thousands of kilometres away, in places like Canada.

But the current event isn’t just another El Niño. 

Right now, sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have climbed to exceptionally high levels, marking the early stages of an extremely strong El Niño. 

And the warming isn’t done yet—like many of its predecessors, this El Niño is expected to peak in intensity in late fall or early winter. 

The U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, with a 75% chance of a historic event exceeding previous events dating back to 1950.

Normally, extreme El Niño events occur once every decade or two. 

For instance, the most recent cases include 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16, which were highly impactful in many areas around the globe. 

Current forecasts indicate that this event could rival or surpass the strongest El Niño events in the historical record.

And while no El Niño is the same, extreme El Niño events tend to have similar effects on the atmosphere above Canada, increasing confidence in some aspects of the long-range forecast.

What this means for winter 2026-27 in Western Canada

In a typical El Niño, upper-level winds frequently split into two streams over North America. The stronger, subtropical branch of the jet stream brings wet and stormy conditions across the southern United States from California to Florida. 

A weaker jet stream travels well to the north over Canada, allowing mild Pacific air to flood across western Canada and resulting in a warmer and drier-than-normal winter for many areas.

During an extreme El Niño, the whole pattern amplifies and shifts eastward, resulting in mild conditions on average across the majority of southern Canada.

Unsurprisingly, long-range models from various agencies are forecasting a much warmer-than-normal winter for most of the country, including western Canada.

Precipitation forecasts show lower skill in the long range, even for extreme El Niño events. 

However, many models are showing a fairly high degree of confidence that much of western Canada will be drier than normal, as has occurred across many areas during past extreme El Niño years, including 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.

The main exception is Vancouver Island and nearby areas of coastal and mainland southwestern British Columbia, where pulses of tropical and subtropical moisture could make for wetter-than-normal conditions overall by the end of winter.

What this means for snow lovers in western Canada

Overall, a warmer and drier winter than normal means less snow for most areas of western Canada. This is especially true through much of the interior ranges of British Columbia east of the Coast Mountains, including the Columbias and Rockies. 

For many, this could mean a shorter season, with the best conditions limited to the highest elevations through mid to late winter.

In coastal British Columbia, lower-elevation resorts may also face shorter seasons. While precipitation may be plentiful, much of it could fall as rain, given the higher-than-normal freezing levels that are possible in many storms during El Niño years. 

In any case, just because the entire season may tilt warmer and drier than average for most areas, there will still likely be blasts of wintry weather at times. 

This includes the potential for brief but significant cold snaps, as well as heavy snow.

Where to seek the snow: altitude, latitude, attitude

That freezing level is key to finding better snow conditions. Below the freezing level, precipitation falls as rain, while above it you’ll find snow.

Altitude

Ski resorts at higher elevations, like Sunshine Village, Kicking Horse, Marmot Basin and Whistler may fare much better by the end of the winter season. 

Latitude

Temperatures also tend to be cooler the further north you go, so if you’re looking to #SkiNorthBC this may be a good season. Recently, Hudson Bay Mountain in Smithers shared snow data showing that when El Niño hits, they fare better than most.

Attitude

Some people wait for good conditions to go skiing, others ski the best conditions they can get, whenever they can. It’s about making the most of the season.

But to score some deeper pow days you may want to shift your trip planning to coincide with seasonal weather windows, to give you your best shot at solid conditions.